金融危机对生产力的破坏是永久还是暂时的?

IMF研究部主任Blanchard昨天说,他认为这次金融危机将对生产力水平造成永久性破坏(链接):
 

“All this means that we may not go back to the old growth path, that potential output may be lower than it was before the crisis.

How much has potential output decreased? It is very hard to tell: we do not see potential output, only actual output. The historical evidence is worrisome, however. The IMF’s forthcoming World Economic Outlook presents evidence from 88 banking crises over the past four decades in a wide range of countries. While there is large variation across countries, the conclusion is that, on average, output does not go back to its old trend path, but remains permanently below it.

The possible good news is that the trend itself appears to be unaffected: on average, crises permanently decrease the level of output, but not its growth rate. So, if past is prologue, the world economy likely will return to its past growth rate. But, especially in advanced countries, the period of above-average growth, characteristic of normal recoveries, may be short-lived or nonexistent. ”

他认为虽然经济增长的平均速度可能不变,但生产力水平可能要永久性地低于没有危机情况下的水平。也就是说,他认为这次的经济危机对总产出的负面作用是永久性,而不是暂时性的。

而在美联储三番银行的经济学家持截然相反观点。他们认为生产力在这次危机中并没有降低,只是劳动力和资本的利用率降低了。由于人们在计算生产力时不考虑劳动力和资本的利用率的问题,所以错误的认为生产力降低了。这里是他们文章的链接。下图中的红线是考虑利用率后计算的生产力。另外一个是不考虑利用率时的结果。大部分时候这两种计算方法之间的差距不大。但在这次危机中却完全相反。不知道作者有什么解释没有。

 

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3 responses to “金融危机对生产力的破坏是永久还是暂时的?

  1. 偶们永远的榜样zuyeye同学呀,感谢光顾噢!你是做啥方向的?macro?偶给你加个链接去~~

  2. 我也给你加个链接罢。就象别人一般告诉我cite了我的文章,我会cite回去,不然显得不厚道,呵呵。

  3. 误会啦,我在个人链接下面都加个field,所以问你一下你的方向。别加偶链接啦,偶的太杂,没你的这么专业

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