According to today’s WSJ,
"J.P. Morgan expects a larger yuan increase over the next 12 months, calling for a rise of 6% to 10%. The bank sees the dollar at 6.40 yuan a year from now."
This forcast is on a par with what I said yesterday.
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这样的话中国会不会很多人失业，造成社会问题？前两年东莞很多加工厂都关门了……
In short, the appreciation alone is not likely to cause any significant impact on China’s economy keeping other policies constant. Don’t have time to elaborate it. The shutdown of plants in Dong Guan two years is more related to the policy shift of the local government than the exchange rate.
好像按现在一年期的人民币future价格来说，应该是涨3%左右。不知道会怎么样，感觉这个完全是政府调控，由某几个人说了算的
不厚道的希望汇率半个月内涨到1：1，然后再回到现在的水平….