Monthly Archives: August 2010

One more picture in Shanghai from the tallest building of Shanghai/China

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WSJ news today

1. 温相提出,日本的公司应该提高在华员工的工资福利。工资应该由市场决定,而不是政府强行让企业提高工资。温相搞经济看来真的是志大才疏。政府应该作得是如何提供劳动力市场的效率,比如废除户口来提高劳动力的流动,通过法规来保障劳资双方信息对称,保障劳动合同的执行等,而不是去规定公司应该付多少工资。
 
2。Barro批评政府的失业保险政策。让人震惊的是关于这次失业数据和以前经济衰退的对比。这次失业的平均周期要远远高于二战后其他衰退。不管是不是象barro声称的那样,这种差别是由于政府提供过于generous的失业保险造成的,这个差别应该在今后两年是个很火的研究课题。
 

To begin with a historical perspective, in the 1982 recession the peak unemployment rate of 10.8% in November-December 1982 corresponded to a mean duration of unemployment of 17.6 weeks and a share of long-term unemployment (those unemployed more than 26 weeks) of 20.4%. Long-term unemployment peaked later, in July 1983, when the unemployment rate had fallen to 9.4%. At that point, the mean duration of unemployment reached 21.2 weeks and the share of long-term unemployment was 24.5%. These numbers are the highest observed in the post-World War II period until recently. Thus, we can think of previous recessions (including those in 2001, 1990-91 and before 1982) as featuring a mean duration of unemployment of less than 21 weeks and a share of long-term unemployment of less than 25%.

These numbers provide a stark contrast with joblessness today. The peak unemployment rate of 10.1% in October 2009 corresponded to a mean duration of unemployment of 27.2 weeks and a share of long-term unemployment of 36%. The duration of unemployment peaked (thus far) at 35.2 weeks in June 2010, when the share of long-term unemployment in the total reached a remarkable 46.2%. These numbers are way above the ceilings of 21 weeks and 25% share applicable to previous post-World War II recessions. The dramatic expansion of unemployment-insurance eligibility to 99 weeks is almost surely the culprit.

今天人品爆发

一篇文章终于被接受了,在经过4轮儿修改之后。

多重均衡和交通堵塞

我每天上班花一个小时在路上,其中有15分钟是由于交通堵塞。如果大家car pool,就能减少路上的车辆,从而减轻交通拥挤的情况。但car pool也有成本,比如要花时间到和自己car pool的人那里。假定所有的人都car pool,交通不堵了。我可以节约15分钟在路上,但如果我花15分钟和car pool的人集合,我并没有节约时间。但car pool仍然是一个更好的社会结果,因为交通通畅后,空气污染量减轻了,尽管对于我个人来说,并没有节约时间。但从我个人角度出发,我并不一定会选择这个结果。而且这是一个不稳定的结果,因为一旦交通不堵塞了,人们就会从car pool这个strategy中deviate出来,选择独自开车。也就是说,交通堵塞是唯一的Nash equilibrium。
 
如何才能实现上面说的好的均衡呢?可以通过提高开车成本,比如对道路在高峰期收费。交通堵塞的一个重要原因就是开车者并没有把自己引起交通堵塞从而浪费的其他人的时间计算在开车成本里。也就是说个人在决定要不要开车时,开车的负的外生效应没有被计算。通过收费可以改变开车成本,从而纠正价格上的扭曲。中国采用的限号规定是提高价格的一个极端例子:在某一天,你开车的价格是无穷大。
 
上面是前端时间北京的哥们在抱怨限号规定时自己有感而发的一个评论。

Why are there fewer female than male professors in science and technology?

Because there are fewer female than male professors in science and technology. This is the message that I got from an article published on RES today.
 

SEX AND SCIENCE: HOW PROFESSOR GENDER PERPETUATES THE GENDER GAP

S

COTT E. CARRELL

Ma

RIANNE E. PAGE

J

AMES E. WEST

Why aren’t there more women in science? This paper begins to shed light on

this question by exploiting data from the U.S. Air Force Academy, where students

are randomly assigned to professors for a wide variety of mandatory standardized

courses.We focus on the role of professor gender. Our results suggest that although

professor gender has little impact on male students, it has a powerful effect on

female students’ performance in math and science classes, and high-performing

female students’ likelihood of taking future math and science courses, and graduating

with a STEM degree. The estimates are largest for students whose SAT math

scores are in the top 5% of the national distribution. The gender gap in course

grades and STEM majors is eradicated when high-performing female students

are assigned to female professors in mandatory introductory math and science

coursework.

山雨欲来风满楼

两个星期没有关注经济消息。回来后发现居然是哀鸿遍野,一副山雨欲来风满楼的架势。首先发现美国股市在过去两个星期跌了不少,道指很有可能再次下万点。这和最近的经济数据有关。7月份美国销售住房量大跌,让人再次怀疑房市到底会不会继续下探。美国的贸易逆差也创了最近的新高,让人担心引发新一轮的贸易大战的可能。中国对美国的顺差加大,看来人民币升值的压力最近又会被重新提上日程。欧洲还是一副病恙恙的样子。爱尔兰今天也被标准普耳再次降级。日本对日元的升值感到非常恼火,叫嚣要采取行动。每个国家都是一副非常不爽的样子。希望政客不要被愤怒冲昏头脑,作出些愚蠢的决定。

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